Source : IGAD-ICPAC
This week, East Africa faces a notable shift in weather patterns, with more than usual rainfall expected in many regions and exceptionally high temperatures in specific areas. Countries likely to experience significant impacts include Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and parts of Sudan. The forecast period runs from 6 to 13 May 2025.
This increase in precipitation may provide relief to some drought-prone areas, but also raises concerns over potential flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained regions.
Rainfall Forecast (6–13 May 2025)
- Heavy Rainfall (More than 200 mm):
Anticipated in parts of central to western Kenya. Communities in these regions should remain alert to the possibility of flash floods and landslides, especially in hilly or mountainous areas. - Moderate Rainfall (50–200 mm):
Forecasted across most of southern Ethiopia, central to northern Somalia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, western and northern Kenya, and parts of northern and coastal Tanzania. This level of rainfall is likely to support agricultural activities, but may also disrupt transport and daily life in flood-prone zones. - Light Rainfall (Less than 50 mm):
Expected in most parts of South Sudan, central to southern Tanzania, parts of eastern Kenya, and northern Ethiopia. These areas may experience drier conditions compared to their neighbors, but some showers could still support pasture and water availability.
Note: 1 mm of rainfall equals 1 litre of water per square meter.
In addition to the anticipated rainfall totals, significant anomalies are expected across the region during the week of 6–13 May 2025, signaling both surplus and deficit rainfall in various areas.
Above-Normal Rainfall:
More than usual rainfall is forecasted over:
- Most parts of Rwanda and Burundi
- Southern and eastern Uganda
- Western and northern Kenya
- Southern Ethiopia
- Northern Somalia
- Northern parts of Tanzania
These anomalies suggest a wetter-than-average week, which could have mixed effects supporting crop and pasture growth in some areas, while increasing the risk of localized flooding and waterlogging in others.
Below-Normal Rainfall:
Conversely, less than usual rainfall is expected over:
- Most parts of South Sudan
- Southern parts of Somalia
- Eastern parts of Kenya
These areas may experience dry spells or delayed rainfall, potentially stressing water resources and affecting agricultural activities if the dry conditions persist.
Farmers, humanitarian actors, and disaster preparedness agencies are advised to take note of these anomalies and adjust their plans accordingly, especially in regions prone to weather-related disruptions.
Meteorological models indicate exceptional rainfall, with totals expected to exceed the 90th percentile placing them among the highest 10% on record in the following regions:
- Parts of western and northern Kenya
- Southern Ethiopia
- Central to northern Somalia
These conditions may lead to flash flooding, river overflows, and soil saturation, particularly in urban centers and flood-prone valleys. The public is urged to stay informed through local weather updates and heed advisories from disaster management authorities. Due to the anticipated high-intensity rains, there is a likelihood of isolated flash flood incidents. Residents in these areas are urged to stay informed, avoid crossing flooded areas, and follow guidance from local disaster preparedness and response authorities.
Communities in these areas should:
- Monitor nearby rivers and water bodies for sudden rises
- Prepare for possible disruptions to transport and livelihoods
- Secure shelters and protect essential infrastructure
This level of rainfall is rare and may have both positive and negative implications. While beneficial for replenishing water sources and supporting agriculture, it can also pose serious risks to life, property, and infrastructure if preparedness measures are not taken in advance.
Temperature Outlook (6–13 May 2025)
- High Temperatures (>32℃):
Forecast in southern and eastern Sudan, the Afar region of Ethiopia, and central Eritrea. These areas are at increased risk of heat stress, especially toward the end of the week. - Moderate to High Temperatures (20–32℃):
Expected across most of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania conditions typical for the season but may still require heat management practices. - Mild Temperatures (<20℃):
Likely in Rwanda, Burundi, south-western Uganda, central to western Kenya, central and southern Tanzania, and central Ethiopia. These areas will experience cooler, more comfortable weather.
Temperature anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures expected over most parts of the Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, southern Kenya, southern and northern Somalia, northern Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, western South Sudan, and eastern and southern parts of Sudan.
- Cooler than usual temperatures expected over parts of eastern South Sudan, north-western Kenya and central Sudan.
Heat Advisory
Starting Friday, 9 May, extreme heat conditions are likely to affect South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti with ‘danger zones” marked in:
- Eastern Sudan
- Afar region of Ethiopia
These temperatures may lead to heat stress, dehydration, and other health complications. People are advised to take preventive measures including hydration, wearing light clothing, and minimizing outdoor activity during peak hours.
This week’s weather forecast calls for heightened vigilance across East Africa. While the rains bring much-needed relief to dry areas and support for agriculture, they also carry risks of flooding, landslides, and heat-related health issues. Communities, local governments, and humanitarian actors are advised to stay alert, plan accordingly, and monitor official weather advisories.
