Source: IGAD-ICPAC
Story By Linda Makau,
With the October–November–December (OND) seasonal forecast now released and most counties in Kenya having already downscaled it and issued advisories, attention is turning to how communities will prepare for the mixed rainfall outlook across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Heavy rainfall is expected in central to northern parts of South Sudan and western Ethiopia, while most of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) will experience warmer-than-average temperatures.
According to the latest rainfall forecast for 30 September–07 October 2025, total rainfall above 200mm is anticipated over central to northern South Sudan and western Ethiopia. Moderate rainfall of between 50–200mm is expected in Rwanda, Uganda, northern Burundi, western Kenya, South Sudan, and northern Somalia, while light rainfall below 50mm is forecast for southern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, and southern and eastern Tanzania.
Notably, more rainfall than usual is expected in South Sudan, Uganda, northern Burundi, Rwanda, northern Somalia, and western Kenya, whereas southern Ethiopia and central to southern Somalia may see below-average rainfall. Exceptional rainfall—exceeding the 90th percentile—is predicted in central to northern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and central to northern Uganda.
Rainfall Forecast 30 September – 07 October 2025
Total rainfall
- Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over parts of central to northern South Sudan and western Ethiopia.
- Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected in most parts of Rwanda, Uganda, northern Burundi, western Kenya, South Sudan, western Kenya and northern Somalia.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected in parts of southern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, central to southern Somalia, southern and eastern Tanzania.
There is a likelihood of Flooding incidences over the flood prone areas in north-central Uganda, central to north-central parts of South Sudan, and pockets in western Ethiopia.
At the same time, temperatures across the region will vary significantly. High temperatures above 32℃ are expected in Ethiopia’s Afar region, while moderate to high temperatures between 20–32℃ will stretch across most of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. Cooler conditions below 20℃ are likely over central Ethiopia, central to southwestern Kenya, and the western regions of Rwanda and Burundi. Overall, the GHA is forecast to experience warmer-than-usual temperatures, except for eastern and northern South Sudan, where cooler-than-average conditions are expected.
Elevated heat stress levels are expected in parts of the Red Sea coast, the Afar region of Ethiopia, and most of central to eastern Sudan, posing potential health risks to vulnerable communities and livestock.
Temperature 30 September – 07 October 2025
- High temperatures (>32℃) expected in Afar region in Ethiopia.
- Moderate to high temperatures (20-32℃) expected over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, eastern and northern Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
- Mild temperature conditions (less than 20℃) expected over central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, and western regions of both Rwanda and Burundi.
These forecasts come as most Kenyan counties have already downscaled the October–November–December (OND) seasonal outlook and issued advisories, noting that rainfall may not be as abundant as previously anticipated. Experts warn that farmers, pastoralists, and disaster preparedness agencies need to remain vigilant, given the likelihood of uneven rainfall distribution, rising temperatures, and heat stress conditions that could affect crop yields, water availability, and human health across the region.
Click here to view the Full Report by ICPAC
