More than Average Rainfall Expected Over Northern Somalia and Southern Ethiopia, with Warmer Conditions Across the Greater Horn of Africa.
Rainfall Forecast: 07 – 14 October 2025
The Greater Horn of Africa is set to experience varied rainfall patterns and warmer than average temperatures between 7th and 14th October 2025, according to the latest forecast. The outlook highlights potential for heavy rainfall and possible flooding in some areas, while others will continue to experience drier-than-usual conditions.
Total Rainfall Distribution
Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) is expected over a few parts of southern Ethiopia, likely to enhance soil moisture but also heighten flood risks in vulnerable areas.
Moderate rainfall (50–200mm) is forecast for northern and southern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, western and central Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, western South Sudan, and south-western Sudan. These rains could provide relief to previously dry areas and support ongoing agricultural activities.
Light rainfall (less than 50mm) is expected in eastern and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Burundi, central Somalia, Eritrea, and south-eastern regions of both Sudan and South Sudan. These areas may continue facing dry conditions, with minimal improvement in water availability.
Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of water per square meter.
Rainfall Anomalies
Forecasts indicate more than usual rainfall over northern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan, south-western Sudan, and most parts of Rwanda and Burundi. This increase in rainfall could enhance water resources and agricultural yields but may also pose flood risks in low-lying areas.
Conversely, less than usual rainfall is expected over most parts of South Sudan, central Somalia, southern Uganda, and western Kenya. These regions may experience continued dry conditions, impacting crop growth and water supply.
Exceptional Rainfall Events
Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile—meaning within the highest 5% on record is projected over south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia. Such extreme rainfall events raise the likelihood of flash floods and surface runoff, particularly in flood-prone regions and poorly drained areas.
Flood Risk Advisory
There is a high likelihood of flooding in south-eastern and pockets of central-western Ethiopia, where persistent heavy rainfall is expected. Authorities are urged to maintain vigilance and strengthen early warning systems to mitigate the impacts on communities, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
Temperature Forecast: 07 – 14 October 2025
The same period will see warmer than average conditions across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with significant variations by region.
Temperature Distribution
High temperatures (>32°C) are expected in the Afar region of Ethiopia, where extreme heat could affect outdoor activities, water availability, and livestock.
Moderate to high temperatures (20–32°C) are likely over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and eastern Ethiopia. These conditions are typical for this period but remain warmer than the long-term seasonal average.
Mild temperatures (below 20°C) are forecast in central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, northern and central Tanzania, and western Rwanda and Burundi, offering some relief from regional heat trends.
Temperature Anomalies
Warmer than usual temperatures are expected across most parts of the GHA, consistent with broader regional warming trends observed in recent years.
Cooler than average conditions may occur in northern Sudan and parts of the Great Rift Valley, where cloud cover and rainfall could moderate daytime heating.
Heat Stress Outlook
The forecast indicates elevated heat stress levels in parts of the Red Sea coast and the Afar region of Ethiopia. Residents are advised to stay hydrated, limit exposure during peak hours, and take necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses.
Summary and Advisory
The 07–14 October 2025 forecast highlights a mixed weather pattern across the Greater Horn of Africa—marked by above-average rainfall in the east and flood threats in Ethiopia and Somalia, coupled with warmer than normal temperatures regionwide.
Authorities, humanitarian agencies, and communities are urged to:
Monitor flood-prone areas closely and maintain early warning systems.
Prepare for potential disruptions to transportation and agriculture due to heavy rainfall.
Adopt heat mitigation measures, particularly in high-risk zones like the Afar region and Red Sea coast.
Overall, the forecast points to a dynamic climate week ahead, with beneficial rainfall for some areas and heightened environmental risks in others underscoring the importance of continued vigilance and preparedness across the Greater Horn of Africa.
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