By Linda Makau,
Forecast Period : 15 – 22 October 2025
This week’s weather outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) indicates a mix of moderate rainfall and warmer-than-usual temperatures across several countries. According to the latest regional climate update, above-average rainfall is expected in the cross-border regions of south-eastern Ethiopia and central Somalia, signaling an early intensification of the October wet season in these areas.
Total Rainfall Outlook:
- Moderate rainfall (50–200 mm) is expected across most parts of Rwanda, Uganda, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central Somalia, and parts of western Kenya. This rainfall is likely to enhance soil moisture and support ongoing agricultural activities. However, communities in flood-prone areas are advised to remain vigilant as the accumulation of moderate rainfall over consecutive days may trigger localized flooding.
- Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) is projected for eastern and western Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, northern Somalia, south-eastern South Sudan, and southern regions of Sudan. While this amount will provide some relief to dry areas, it may not be sufficient to replenish water sources or significantly improve pasture conditions.
Note: 1 mm of rainfall is equivalent to 1 litre of water per square meter.
Rainfall Anomalies
Compared to the long-term average, rainfall anomalies indicate an uneven distribution of precipitation across the region:
- More than usual rainfall is expected over central to northern regions of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central Somalia, and parts of western Kenya, as well as central and northern Uganda. This suggests intensified wet conditions that could benefit crop performance but also heighten the risk of flash floods and waterlogging in poorly drained areas.
- Less than usual rainfall is anticipated over most parts of eastern Kenya, western and eastern Tanzania, south-eastern South Sudan, and north-western Somalia. These regions may experience prolonged dry spells and delayed onset of seasonal rains, potentially stressing water and food security.
Exceptional Rainfall
Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile representing the highest 5% on record is forecast over cross-border regions of south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, and parts of north-eastern Kenya. This exceptional rainfall could lead to flooding, river overflows, and disruptions to transport and livelihoods in low-lying and riverine areas. Authorities and communities in these zones are advised to remain alert and implement early warning and preparedness measures.
Flood Alert
There is a likelihood of flooding incidences over flood-prone areas in south-eastern and central-southern Ethiopia and central Somalia. Communities living near rivers, wetlands, and low-lying areas are advised to:
- Stay alert to local early warning messages and evacuation advisories.
- Avoid crossing flooded roads or bridges.
- Secure property and livestock in elevated areas.
- Ensure proper drainage to minimize surface runoff around homes and farms.
Temperature Forecast: 15 – 22 October 2025
The temperature outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) indicates generally warm to hot conditions across most parts of the region, with pockets of mild temperatures in highland areas. Extremely hot conditions are expected in the Afar region of Ethiopia, where daytime temperatures will exceed 32°C. These high temperatures may lead to increased evaporation rates and heat stress, particularly in areas with limited vegetation cover.
Most parts of the GHA will experience moderate to high temperatures, ranging between 20°C and 32°C, including:
- Sudan and South Sudan
- Uganda and Tanzania
- Kenya and Somalia
- Djibouti, Eritrea, and eastern Ethiopia
- These temperature conditions are typical for this time of year but remain slightly warmer than average in several areas, potentially affecting crop and pasture growth in semi-arid zones.
Cooler and more comfortable temperatures are expected in:
- Central Ethiopia
- Central to south-western Kenya
- Western parts of Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda
These mild conditions will be most notable in highland and mountainous regions, offering relief from the otherwise warm conditions across the region.
Temperature Anomalies
- Warmer than usual temperatures are expected across most parts of the GHA, reflecting the ongoing regional warming trend.
- Cooler than average temperatures are anticipated over south-eastern Ethiopia and a few isolated areas across the region, likely linked to increased rainfall and cloud cover suppressing daytime heating.
Heat Stress Advisory
Elevated heat stress levels are expected in:
- Northern regions of South Sudan
- Eastern Sudan
- Afar region of Ethiopia
These areas are likely to experience intense daytime heat and limited nighttime cooling, which could pose health and environmental risks.
The weather outlook for 15–22 October 2025 highlights a week of contrasting climate conditions across the Greater Horn of Africa. While heavy to exceptional rainfall is anticipated in parts of south-eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya, leading to possible flooding, other areas particularly Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia’s Afar region will experience intense heat and elevated heat stress.
Communities are therefore urged to stay alert to early warning messages, monitor local weather updates, and take preparedness actions to reduce potential risks from both floods and heatwaves. National and regional authorities, including disaster management agencies and meteorological departments, are encouraged to enhance coordination and communication to support timely response and safeguard livelihoods.
The combination of above-average rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures underscores the need for adaptive planning, climate-smart agriculture, and community awareness to build resilience in the face of increasing weather extremes across the GHA.
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